In its latest 'Food Inflation Brief', the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) reported that South Africa’s food and non-alcoholic beverage (NAB) inflation (hereafter to be referred to simply as food inflation), in year-on-year (y-o-y) terms, decreased in April in comparison to the figure for March, but only by a marginal amount. Y-o-y inflation in April was 13.9%, which was only 0.1% lower than the y-o-y inflation recorded in March. In month-on-month (m-o-m) terms, food inflation rose 0.6% in April.

In comparison, the country’s y-o-y consumer price index (CPI) headline inflation figure in April was 6.8%. M-o-m, CPI headline inflation was up 0.4%. Food inflation contributed 2.4 percentage points to CPI y-o-y inflation and 0.1 percentage points to CPI m-o-m inflation. In terms of inputs into agriculture, the local CPI for fuel in April was up 5%, y-o-y, while that for “electricity and other fuels” rose 8.2% y-o-y. “Persistant & severe electricity loadshedding” was listed as a challenge.

In April, the rand/US dollar exchange rate was R18.17/$1.00, whereas in April 2022 it had been R14.98/$1.00. This made imported agricultural inputs more expensive but made South African agricultural exports more competitive. Notably, South Africa was now one of the cheapest sources of maize, worldwide, with a price of $190/t in comparison to the US price of $255/t. (The current estimate for South Africa’s maize crop this year was 16.1-million tons, while local demand was 11.5-million tons, so there should be an “ample surplus” for export.)  “However”, the BFAP observed, “the higher costs of transportation, processing and retailing due to loadshedding and crumbling road infrastructure will absorb some of the potential reduction in maize meal prices and we expect the farm-to-retail margin to increase over time”.

The food categories with the highest y-o-y food inflation in April were vegetables (23.1%), bread and cereals (20.8%), dairy and eggs (14.5%), fish (11.9%), sugar and sugar-rich foods (10.7%), NAB (10.4%), oils and fats (9.9%), meat (9.5%) and fruit (3.6%). The highest m-o-m inflation was recorded for vegetables (2.2%), dairy and eggs (1.5%), fish (1%), sugar and sugar-rich foods (0.9%), NAB (0.8%), bread and cereals (0.5%), while meat saw zero inflation and oils and fats had deflation of 0.2% and fruit saw deflation of 2.8%.

Commonly purchased food items which saw y-o-y inflation of above 30% last month were (in BFAP’s order and categorisation) onions, sweet peppers, carrots, spinach, ham, beef (sirloin, fillet) and maize meal. Those with inflation less than 30% but equal to or more than 20% were tomatoes, potatoes, beetroot, pumpkin, cabbage, pineapples, apples, pork chops, chicken giblets, bacon, corned beef, Ceylon/black tea and wheat flour. In the inflation range of less than 20%, down to 10%, were beef (rump, T-bone), pork (ribs, fillet), chicken (fresh portions), canned pilchards, milk, sour milk, cheddar cheese, yoghurt, canned baked beans, white and brown bread, pasta, rooibos tea, coffee, fruit juice, sugar-rich foods and margarine. Some food items saw y-o-y deflation; they were rice, whole fresh chicken, mutton/lamb leg, and papaya.

The price of the BFAP’s Thrifty Healthy Food Basket (THFB) increased in April by 16.3%, or R505, y-o-y, and by 1.1%, or R38, m-o-m. The THFB was composed of 26 nutritionally-balanced food items from all the food groups and was designed to feed a family of two adults and one older and one younger child, for a month. Assuming that this family earned two minimum wages and benefitted from child grants and school feeding, the THFB would have consumed 31.4% of its total income.