Global steel demand will grow by 3.9% to 1.78-million tonnes this year and by 1.7% to 1.81-million tonnes in 2020, the World Steel Association (worldsteel) estimates in its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO).
“The current SRO suggests that global steel demand will continue to grow this year, more than we expected in these challenging times, mainly due to China,” comments worldsteel economics committee chairperson Al Remeithi.
He notes that global steel demand, excluding China, has slowed this year as uncertainty, trade tensions and geopolitical issues weigh on investment and trade.
“Manufacturing, particularly the auto industry, has performed poorly, contracting in many countries; however, in construction, despite some slowing, positive momentum has been maintained.
“While the global economic outlook is highly unpredictable, we expect to see further growth in steel demand in 2020 of 1.7%, with emerging and developing economies, excluding China, contributing more. This forecast faces significant downside risks if the current level of uncertainty prevails.”
The SRO notes that Chinese steel demand is likely to grow by 7.8% this year to 900.1-million tonnes owing to a strong real estate sector, but this growth is forecast to slow to 1% in 2020, taking China’s steel demand to 909.1-million tonnes.
Steel demand in the rest of the world is expected to grow by 0.2% to 874.9-million tonnes this year and by 2.5% to 896.6-million tonnes in 2020.
Africa’s steel demand is forecast to contract by 1.4% this year to 36-million tonnes, but is likely to grow by 3.2% to 37.2-million tonnes in 2020.