South African food and non-alcoholic beverage (NAB) inflation (hereafter to be referred to just as food inflation, for short) decelerated for the third month in succession, in February, the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Production (BFAP) think tank has highlighted, in its latest ‘Food Inflation Brief’ report. In year-on-year terms, food inflation in February was 6.1%, a full 1.1 percentage points below the January rate of 7.2%. In November, food inflation had been running at 9%. However, consumer price index (CPI) headline inflation in February increased to 5.6%, continuing an upward trend that started in December, when the figure had been 5.1%. Food inflation contributed 1.1 percentage points to CPI headline inflation.

In month-on-month terms, food inflation in February ran at zero percent. Month-on-month CPI headline inflation was 1%, to which food inflation contributed zero percentage points.

Referring to the infrastructure challenges facing the country’s agricultural industry, in addition to the longstanding highlighting of “persistent electricity loadshedding” (power cuts), this edition of the report added “port challenges”. Further issues were that the CPI index for “electricity and other fuels” rose 15.2%, year-on-year (although by zero percent, month-on-month), in February, while that for “fuel” increased by 5.4% year-on-year and by 3% month-on-month. The rand continued its depreciation against the dollar, by 6.1%, year-on-year, from R17.90/$1 in February 2023 to R19/$1 this February.

The food categories which experienced the highest year-on-year inflation in February were sugar-rich foods (18.5%), dairy and eggs (12%), vegetables (9.4%), NAB (7.5%), bread and cereals (6.1%), fruit (5.9%), fish (3.2%) and meat (1.5%). Oils and fats experienced deflation of -5.2%. In month-on-month terms, the foods that saw the highest inflation were NAB (1%), bread and cereals (0.9%), sugar-rich foods (0.4%), dairy and eggs (also 0.4%) and fish (0.2%), while oils and fats had zero percent inflation. The foods that had month-on-month deflation were meat (-0.5%), vegetables (-1.7%) and fruit (-2.7%).

In February, in BFAP’s order and categorisations, and in year-on-year terms, the commonly bought food items with inflation equal to, or higher than, 30% were papaya, oranges; potatoes; and rice. Those with inflation from 20% to just under 30% were pears; broccoli, sweet potatoes, frozen potato chips; eggs; white and brown sugar; Ceylon/black tea, instant coffee; and whiteners. Those with inflation from 10% to just under 20% were apples; instant noodles; canned baked beans, dried beans, peanuts, peanut butter; frozen hake and fish fingers; sour milk, gouda cheese; and fruit juice.

Those which saw year-on-year deflation in February were (again in BFAP’s order and categorisations) white bread, cereals/porridge, pasta; pork (bacon, chops, ribs); beef (brisket, chuck, fillet, mince, rump steak, sirloin, T-bone, stew); mutton/lamb (leg, neck, offal, rib chops, stew); cabbage, sweet peppers, lettuce, spinach, onions, tomatoes, canned mixed vegetables; and, sunflower and canola oil.

The cost of the BFAP’s thrifty healthy food basket (THFB) increased by 4.5%, or R343, year-on-year, in February, but decreased by -0.1%, or -R3.24, month-on-month. The THFB is composed of 26 nutritionally balanced food items from all the food groups and is designed to feed a ‘reference family’ of two adults, and one older and one younger child, for a month. Buying it would account for 32.5% of a low-income family’s expenditure.