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R/€ = 16.22 Change: 0.06
R/$ = 14.19 Change: 0.07
Au 1315.71 $/oz Change: 12.11
Pt 869.76 $/oz Change: 12.61
 
 
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Sacci survey anticipates trade conditions remaining subdued for next six months

12th December 2018 BY: Marleny Arnoldi
Creamer Media Online Writer

The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) Trade Conditions Survey for November shows that activity remains subdued and is likely to remain subdued for the next six months.

The survey stated that trade conditions remained negative, with the seasonally adjusted trade activity index (TAI) at 40 in November – remaining unchanged from October.

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“It appears that Black Friday did not materially change subdued trade activity,” Sacci reported.

In November, the non-seasonally adjusted TAI improved marginally to 43, from 42 in October, but is still below the 45 recorded in November 2017.

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Expectations for the next six months suggest that trade conditions will remain negative as the trade expectations index remained at 44 in November, which is 11 points below the 55 recorded in November 2017.

Sacci noted that trade conditions were also affected by nontrade matters as identified by respondents.

The minimum wage that will affect staff replacements, disruptions by political posturing, volatility ascribed to seasonal factors, regulators compliance costs, lack of local government service delivery and uncertainty on land reform, added to the disruption of trade activity, the chamber pointed out.

The sales subindex rose slightly to 46, compared with 45 in October, but was lower than the 49 recorded in November 2017.

New orders also improved to 39, from 36 in October.

Sales prospects for the next six months moved into positive terrain at 52 from 50 in October; however, the subindex for expected new orders declined from 47 in October to 44 in November.

Sacci’s survey further suggested lower sales and input prices going forward, while sales prices remain sensitive to input costs.

The sales-price index decreased by four index points to 57 and the input price index decreased by eight index points to 74. Future price movements, therefore, point to lower inflationary expectations. 

The employment subindex, at 38, was relatively stable below the negative level of 40. The six-month employment outlook index, however, improved marginally by two index points to 37. 

EDITED BY: Chanel de Bruyn Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor Online
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